Инфляц өндөр түвшинд хадгалагдах эрсдэл хэвээр байна
Эдийн засгийн хүндрэлд нөлөөлж буй хүчин зүйлс макро түвшний савлагаанаас илүү иргэдийн өдөр тутмын амьдрал, үнийн өсөлтийн дарамтад өртөж төгрөгийн ханш шалдаа ортол буурах, гадаад валютын эсрэг өсөх магадлалгүй хэвээр үхмэл удсан нь ихээхэн муу нөлөөлөл үзүүлж байна
Монгол банкны хамгийн сүүлийн тойм мэдээнд манай улсын хувьд гадаад орчны таагүй нөхцөл байдал үргэлжлэх, төлбөрийн тэнцлийн алдагдал тэлэх, зээл, санхүүжилтийн эх үүсвэр хумигдах нь эдийн засгийн идэвхжилд сөргөөр нөлөөлөх бол хүнсний үнэ, зардлын шалтгаантай инфляц удаан хугацаанд үргэлжлэх, улмаар хоёр дахь үеийн нөлөөгөөр инфляц өндөр түвшинд хадгалагдах эрсдэл хэвээр байна.
- Гадаад орчны таагүй нөхцөл.
Ковид, дайны сөрөг нөлөө эдийн засагт хэвээр хадгалагдах тусам Монгол улс мөд сэргэх найдваргүй гадны хамааралтай монгол улсын эдийн засаг өсөн дэвжих ойрын хугацааны хүлээлт хөшингө байдалд орох магадлал өндөр
- Төлбөрийн тэнцлийн алдагдах тэлэх, зээл санхүүжилтийн эх үүсвэр хумигдах.
Зээлээ төлж чадахгүй улс өртэй хүн өөдлөхгүй өттэй мал таргалахгүй гэдэгтэй ижил хувь заяаг эдлэх нь тодорхой. Хэдий монголын уламжлалд муу амлахыг цээрлэдэг бодит тоон үзүүлэлт, эдийн засгийн төлөв байдал ийм л байна. Хэрвээ авлигажсан нийгэм улс төр нь хандлагаа үйлдэлтэйгээ зөв тийш хандуулахгүй бол ганцаардлын хар сүүдэр гэдэг шиг Монголд хөрөнгө оруулах улс ховордож, улам хараат байдал руу давших бололтой.
- Хүнсний үнэ, зардлын шалтгаантай инфляц удаан үргэлжлэх
Хамгийн муу мэдээ энэ л байна. Хямралаас үүдсэн эдийн засаг хамрын ханиаданд дарлуулаад хатгаа тусаад үхэх гэж байгаа амьд биетээс ялгаагүй сул дорой байдалд оржээ л гэсэн үг. Хэдий сангийн яам, Засгийн газар эрх баригчид өр дарагдлаа, алдагдал ариллаа гэж байгаа ч хойд хормойгоороо урд хормойгоо нөхөж амь аргацаасан үйлдлүүдийн л жишиг гэж харагдахаар
Дэлхийн банкны зөвлөж буйгаар улс төр, нийгмийн сөрөг хүчин зүйлийн нөлөөг нэн түрүүн бууруулж эрс шинэчлэлийн бодлого шаардагдаж байна.
МОНГОЛ УЛСЫН ЭДИЙН ЗАСГИЙН ТОЙМ – 2022 оны 4 дүгээр сарын мэдээгээр /дэлхийн банк/
Хотын ядуу өрх хэрэглээнийхээ 40 хувийг хүнсний зүйлд зарцуулдаг тул хүнсний бүтээгдэхүүний үнийн өсөлт хүн амын ядуурлыг цар тахлын өмнөх үеэс илүү өндөр түвшинд хүргэж болзошгүй байна. Түүнчлэн цаг агаарын таагүй нөхцөл байдал ядуу болон эмзэг бүлгийн малчин өрхүүдийн орлогод сөргөөр нөлөөлж болно. Коронавирусын шинэ, илүү хоруу чанартай хувилбарууд гарч ирвэл хилийн боомтууд хаагдаж, экспорт зогсож, сэргэхээр хүлээгдэж байсан хувийн хэрэглээ зогсонги байдалд орсноор эдийн засгийн өсөлтийг сааруулж болно. Өсөн нэмэгдэж буй эрсдэл, тодорхой бус байдлаас харахад бодлого тодорхойлогчид макро эдийн засгийн бодлогын тохируулга хийх шаардлагатай байна.
Эдийн засгийн ач холбогдолтой коридоруудын дагуух тээврийн салбарын хөрөнгө оруулалтад тэргүүн зэргийн ач холбогдох өгөхийн сацуу хил гаалийн, логистикийн үйл ажиллагааг сайжруулан худалдааны зардлыг бууруулах, хөрөнгө оруулалтыг татахын тулд бизнесийн орчин болон эдийн засгийн засаглалыг сайжруулах шаардлага тулгарчээ.
Тоо баримтын эх сурвалж: MEU-2022-April-MN.pdf (worldbank.org)
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Сэтгэгдэл
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